2024: Seizing opportunities amid change 2025: Pursuing development amidst stability
Date：2024.12.30 15:57Views：
Author ｜ Celedog Research Institute
[Author's Note] Based on the Celedog2 large model and the Celestial Dog Think Tank, the Celestial Dog Research Institute has made a summary of the global economy in 2024 and a forecast for the global economy in 2025. In the context of the deep interweaving of globalization and complex geopolitics, the world economic pattern in 2024 is full of changes and adjustments, and 2025 is expected to enter a relatively stable track. This kind of "change" and "stability" is not only a description of the economic state in the past two years, but also a deep insight into the trend of global economic development. The following will analyze the "changes" in 2024 from the perspectives of geopolitics, technology drivers, policy dynamics, market performance, etc., and explore why 2025 can find a stable fulcrum in turbulence.
01 "Change" in 2024: the global economy in adjustment
The global economy in 2024 will be shaped by a number of key variables: from changes in the geopolitical situation to the far-reaching impact of scientific and technological innovation, from policy shifts to market fluctuations, all of which show the profound connotation of the word "change".
1. Geopolitical tensions and the adjustment of the global economy
In 2024, the international geopolitical situation remains tense. Great power competition has intensified, and trade barriers and sanctions have become important variables. Specifically, it is manifested in:
Supply chain restructuring: The aftermath of the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts have made companies pay more attention to the diversification and security of their supply chains.
Increasing regionalization: Supply chain networks with regional economic cooperation at the core are gradually replacing the globalization model, and the interaction pattern between Asian economies, the European Union and the North American market has changed significantly.
This year, "change" not only means risks, but also new opportunities. In the midst of these challenges, global enterprises have begun to adapt to the trend of "de-globalization" and regionalization, and gradually establish business models with strong flexibility and high risk resistance.
2. Profound change driven by technology
2024 is an important year for technological breakthroughs and diffusion, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), renewable energy, and biotechnology.
Large-scale application of AI: From manufacturing to daily consumption, AI accelerates industrial upgrading, but its social impact (such as changes in employment structure) has also led to widespread discussion.
New energy technology innovation: Under the goal of carbon neutrality, countries will promote the implementation of new energy projects and promote the transformation of the energy market from traditional fossil energy to wind, solar and nuclear energy.
The advancement of these technologies has changed the economic landscape and intensified competition. Companies must respond to the rapidly changing technology landscape while seizing the emerging market opportunities presented by the technology dividend.
3. Policy shifts and economic fluctuations
Economic policy in 2024 is striking a balance between inflationary pressures and slowing growth, with the choices of central banks and governments in the spotlight.
Monetary policy adjustments: Many economies are transitioning from tight monetary policy to loose policy in response to economic slowdowns and high debt issues.
Fiscal policy transition: Governments are stimulating the economy through green investment, infrastructure development, and other means, but these measures could further push up fiscal deficits and long-term debt.
This policy adjustment has caused uncertainty in the market, but it has also created development opportunities for emerging industries and capital markets.
4. Changes in financial markets and the investment environment
In the context of "change", the performance of the capital market in 2024 is complex and diverse. Global equities, bond and commodity markets all show significant volatility:
Equity market volatility: Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks lead to increased short-term speculation.
Unstable energy and raw material prices: Traditional energy prices may fluctuate significantly due to new energy policies.
Investors must look for stable assets in the midst of volatility, and areas such as green investments and technology stocks have gradually become safe havens for capital.
02 "Stability" in 2025: Stable Policies and Sustained Cooperation
In 2025, the global economy is expected to usher in a more stable stage of development after undergoing adjustments. This kind of "stability" is not only the result of the external environment becoming more peaceful, but also the embodiment of the gradual accumulation of internal growth momentum.
1. Policies have stabilized and the economy has entered a recovery stage
After the adjustment in 2024, the economic policies of various countries will gradually stabilize in 2025:
Balance of monetary policy: Central banks are more focused on finding a balance between controlling inflation and stimulating the economy, avoiding the side effects of excessive tightening or easing.
Fiscal policy focus: Fiscal stimulus in 2025 will be more focused on long-term development areas, such as education, technology, and green energy, and will reduce over-reliance on short-term economic growth.
The stability of the policy provides clear guidance for corporate planning and investment, while enhancing market confidence.
2. International cooperation is back on track
In 2025, global multilateral cooperation may become the main theme again. Although the great power game still exists, global issues such as climate change and energy transition have forced countries to strengthen cooperation.
Deepening global climate cooperation: COP31 (assumed to take place in 2025) could be an important opportunity for countries to reach a new agreement on carbon neutrality goals.
Supply chain recovery: After the adjustment in 2024, the efficiency and stability of the supply chain gradually improved, and the performance of global trade tended to normalize.
Increased international cooperation will inject more certainty into the global economy and provide support for stable development in 2025.
3. Increased stability of technology-driven growth
In 2025, technological breakthroughs will enter the industrialization stage, and their growth effects will begin to appear:
Mature new energy industry chain: After the trial stage in 2024, renewable energy technology and energy storage technology will be applied on a large scale around the world, driving down energy costs.
Artificial intelligence optimizes efficiency: AI technology is gradually being applied in manufacturing, service, medical and other fields, improving the overall efficiency of the global economy.
The economic dividends brought about by technological innovation have been further expanded, providing a sustained endogenous driving force for economic growth.
4. Return to stability in financial markets
Financial market performance is expected to be more stable in 2025:
Equity markets stabilize and rebound: Policy clarity and the recovery of corporate profitability are supporting equities.
Green investment has become mainstream: With the rise of the green economy, investment in related fields continues to heat up, providing new growth points for the market.
Investor confidence will gradually recover during the year, and the volatility of capital markets will be significantly reduced.
03 From "Change" to "Stability": Enlightenment for the Future
From "change" in 2024 to "stability" in 2025, this is not only a description of the economic state in two years, but also a summary of the logic of the global economy:
Change is the engine of adaptation: The multiple changes in 2024 have pushed businesses, countries and individuals to find a new balance and laid the foundation for long-term stability.
Stability is a prerequisite for sustainable development: The steady progress of the economy in 2025 is based on clear policies, deepening international cooperation and the release of technological dividends.
04 epilogue
The "change" in 2024 is an adjustment to the traditional pattern, and it is also an opportunity to open up a new situation for future development; The "stability" in 2025 is the undertaking and deepening of this adjustment, marking that the global economy has entered a new state of equilibrium. In this process, seizing the opportunities in the midst of "change" and conforming to the trend of "stability" are issues that all economies and market participants need to face together.
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